Way back last November, I wrote a pair of posts titled “Where do we go from here??” where I handicapped the thirty-three 2008 Senate races. With eight months gone by and a primary season rapidly approaching, it’s time to review where things stand. And yes, there are some surprises!!

Here are the thirty-three.

Lamar Alexander (R-TN) (68) (Minority Whip 2007)
Wayne Allard (R-CO) (65)
Max Baucus (D-MT) (67)
Joe Biden (D-DE) (66)
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) (65)
Thad Cochran (R-MS) (71)
Norm Coleman (R-MN) (59)
Susan Collins (R-ME) (56)
John Cornyn (R-TX) (56)
Larry Craig (R-ID) (63)
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) (72)
Pete Domenici (R-NM) (76)
Richard Durbin (D-IL) (64)
Michael Enzi (R-WY) (64)
Lindsay Graham (R-SC) (53)
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) (62)
Tom Harkin (D-IA) (69)
James Inhofe (R-OK) (74)
Tim Johnson (D-SD) (62)
John Kerry (D-MA) (65)
Mary Landrieu (D-LA) (53)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) (84)
Carl Levin (D-MI) (74)
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (66)
Mark Prior (D-AR) (45)
Jack Reed (D-RI) (59)
Pat Roberts (R-KS) (72)
John Rockefeller (D-WV) (71)
Jeff Sessions (R-AL) (62)
Gordon Smith (R-OR) (56)
Ted Stevens (R-AK) (85)
John Sununu (R-NH) (44)
John Warner (R-VA) (81)

Lamar Alexander R-TN Back in November I wrote: I doubt anyone can take Lamar Alexander unless he gets caught in some scandal involving male pages. Safe. There are rumors that Lamar! may become the Chancellor of Vanderbilt University. Alexander does have $816k Cash on Hand and has previously said he is running for re-election. Sadly, no one with any -real- credentials has stepped up to take him on. Mike McWherter who has no previous political experience and whose only claim to fame is being the son of a former Governor is the only token candidate. Still safe GOP.

Wayne Allard R-CO is not seeking re-election. With Allard out, this will be a battle between Republican Bob Schaffer (Who lost to self-funded beer magnate Pete Coors in the 2004 primary to replace Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Coors then lost to Ken Salazar.) and Democrat Mark Udall. This is not going to be the cakewalk that I envisioned back in November. 60-40 Udall. Dem pickup.

Max Baucus D-MT Abramoff tainted Max Baucus is running for re-election. It looks like Baucus will prevail as the only announced opposition is Republican Michael Lange who was so toxic, the Montana GOP leadership booted him as their House Majority Leader. Baucus has nearly $3 million in the bank. Safe Dem.

Joe Biden D-DE Back in November, I wrote: Motor mouth Joe Biden (his mouth is his own worst enemy) is going to take yet another shot at President. He will lose that race and if he waits too long, he will lose the Senate seat too, that is if he doesn’t give it up before hand. If it becomes an open seat, Delaware has a strong Dem bias so the seat will likely stay Dem, but Schumer had better find a good candidate now. Since then, Biden has only raised $110k but spent over $2.25 million out of his Senate account leaving just $1.4 million CoH. So far, Biden has drawn only token opposition in 2002 retread Ray Clatworthy (primary winner), 2002 retread Bill Holt (primary loser), and 2006 retread Michael Protack (primary loser). The Dem side is no better with only Biden’s son “Beau” Biden as the designated “heir apparent” should Biden Sr. “retire”. C’mon, people, we can do better than this!! Toss up.

Saxby Chambliss R-GA has $3.3 million CoH and has drawn “political outsider“/TV reporter Dale Cardman, and DINO/crook/accused rapist Vernon Jones as challengers. Cardman has vowed to not take PAC money, but has raised just $50k. If anyone deserves to be punted from the Senate, it is Chambliss. Show Cardman some love!!

Thad Cochran R-MS has $900k CoH but still hasn’t announced if he will run or retire. No candidate has stepped forward to challenge Cochran. If he runs, he wins. Safe GOP.

Norm Coleman R-MN is under fire from the right and the left. Coleman has built a $3 mil plus war chest but may have to spend some of that should former advisor Joe Repya decide to primary Coleman. From the left, Al Franken has nearly $2 mil CoH. Mike Ciresi is a self-funding lawyer and environmental lobbyist Jim Cohen are also worthy replacements for Coleman. Depending on how bloody the Dem primary is, Coleman should be toast. Dem pickup.

Susan Collins R-ME has drawn US Representative Tom Allen as an opponent. Allen is this year’s Ned Lamont darling of the netroots. Allen has already raised $1.7 mil to take on Collins $2.3 mil CoH war chest. While an uphill battle, this could be a huge pickup if Allen can defeat the Bush rubber stamp with her Lieberman support. 60/40 Rep.

John “Box Turtle” Cornyn R-TX will go up against self-funding, anti-choice lawyer Mikal Watts. Watts has already matched Cornyn’s $3.8 million war chest and plans to spend up to $10 million!! I hate self-funders as they rarely ever win, yet block out true candidates like Texas Rep Rick Noriega who has been to Afghanistan, guarded the Texas Border, and aided Katrina victims as a member of the National Guard. Before I called it 55/45, now I’d say it’s 60/40 Cornyn retains. This is one to watch.

Larry Craig R-ID has yet to say if he will run again and only has $400k Cash on Hand. Former US Rep. Larry LaRocco is taking on Craig. In November, I called this safe for Craig, but not anymore. This race is not yet on anyone’s radar, but it should be. 60/40 Rep, tossup if Craig retires.

Elizabeth Dole R-NC is running for re-election. She only has $1.5 mil CoH, but can easily raise more. Sadly, she is running unopposed. DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer really needs to find a sacrifice to make her spend that money. Safe Rep.

Pete Domenici R-NM has decided to run again despite the cloud of the US Attorney scandal that is hanging over him. At this point, Domenici has only $540k CoH. So far, only token opposition in the form of Real Estate Developer Don Wiviott, CPA Jim Hannan, and Leland Lehrman have stepped to the plate to take him on. I had rated this one a tossup, but that is rapidly slipping away with the lack of a top Dem.

Dick Durbin D-IL is a shoe-in to retain his seat. Durbin has $4 million CoH and weak opposition in the form of political novices Steve Sauerberg and Jim Rowe. Safe Dem.

If Michael Enzi R-WY was safe before (even with only $223k CoH), he can go on vacation now with the death and coming special election to replace Wyoming’s other Senator, Craig Thomas. If anyone was thinking about taking on Enzi, they will certainly switch to the easier fight against appointee John Barrasso for the remainder of Thomas’ term. Safe Rep.

John Barrasso R-WY may get a primary challenge from Matt Mead, a US Attorney who resigned to be eligible for the seat that Barrasso got. Barrasso was appointed to the seat after Craig Thomas died in June. Aside from that, no Dems have announced a run yet. Safe Rep for now.

Lindsay Graham R-SC is drawing fire from all sides. Winger sites Dump Lindsey, Dump Lindsey Graham, and The Payback Project are whipping conservatives to primary Graham. From the right, John Cina, and Tim Carnes are taking shots with U.S. Rep. J. Gresham Barrett R-SC-3 considering a run. Former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett and current U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan are also considering runs. There are no announced Dem challengers. Graham has 3.6 mil CoH to crush any Habaes Corpus lovers. Please, somebody step up, Lindsay Graham must go.

Chuck Hagel R-NE has just $230k CoH sparking rumors he will retire or switch parties for an independent bid at President/VP with Mike Bloomberg. Current Nebraska Attorney General, Republican Jon Bruning has already raised $700k to take Hagel’s seat. Former U.S. Rep and Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is considering a primary challenge. From the left, former Senator Bob Kerrey has $437k from his previous tenure to draw on should the pro-Iraq War Dem run. Omaha’s Dem Mayor Mike Fahey is considering a run IF Hagel retires. Another possible Dem is Scott Kleeb who may run IF Hagel retires. At this point, paint it red.

Tom Harkin D-IA Back in November, I wrote: Jim Nussle, who just lost in his Iowa Governor’s bid, could make a race out of it. If Nussle runs, call it a toss up. There is good news and bad news. The good news is Bush named Nussle to succeed Rob Portman at OMB taking him out of the running, and Harkin has nearly $2 mil CoH. Harkin has drawn a trio of token opposition in contractor Steve Rathje, lobbyist Bruce Rastetter, and air conditioner repairman Bob McDowell. The bad news is U.S. Rep. Steve King R-IA-5 may take a shot. If he does, call it a toss up, if not, Harkin retains.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 25th, 2007 at 10:42 pm and is filed under Election '08. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.